On the scientific consensus about climate change:
"928 papers [in refereed journals between 1993 and 2003] were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position."
-Oreskes, N., 2004: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, Science, 306, 10.1126/science.1103618
"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations."
-IPCC, SPM, 2007
(anthropogenic means human-made or human-caused)
"The scientific consensus is far stronger today than at any time in the past. Here is the truth: The Earth is round; Saddam Hussein did not attack us on 9/11; Elvis is dead; Obama was born in the United States; and the climate crisis is real. "
- Al Gore, Rolling Stone, June 22nd, 2011
In some ways I hate to use a quote from Al Gore, since I know he's a divisive figure, and much as I tend to immediately discard anything Ann Coulter says, I know some people feel the same about him. He's right though. Below is a slide from this morning's final Climatology lecture, showing the climate models that have the best current knowledge about how climate systems operate. Without accounting for anthropogenic factors, natural factor models (blue) can't even come close to observed temperatures in the last 50 years- you have to account for natural and anthropogenic factors together (orange) to do so.
My professor also published a paper about the "Snowpocalypse" events in recent Northeast winters, showing they were the worst winters in something like 500 years- it has to do with polar fronts and changing circulation strengths...or something...I have studying to do before next Monday's final...anyway I have freezing my butt off to look forward to this winter.
-Oreskes, N., 2004: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, Science, 306, 10.1126/science.1103618
"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations."
-IPCC, SPM, 2007
(anthropogenic means human-made or human-caused)
"The scientific consensus is far stronger today than at any time in the past. Here is the truth: The Earth is round; Saddam Hussein did not attack us on 9/11; Elvis is dead; Obama was born in the United States; and the climate crisis is real. "
- Al Gore, Rolling Stone, June 22nd, 2011
In some ways I hate to use a quote from Al Gore, since I know he's a divisive figure, and much as I tend to immediately discard anything Ann Coulter says, I know some people feel the same about him. He's right though. Below is a slide from this morning's final Climatology lecture, showing the climate models that have the best current knowledge about how climate systems operate. Without accounting for anthropogenic factors, natural factor models (blue) can't even come close to observed temperatures in the last 50 years- you have to account for natural and anthropogenic factors together (orange) to do so.
My professor also published a paper about the "Snowpocalypse" events in recent Northeast winters, showing they were the worst winters in something like 500 years- it has to do with polar fronts and changing circulation strengths...or something...I have studying to do before next Monday's final...anyway I have freezing my butt off to look forward to this winter.Because for now, it's insanely hot. I had my AC unit installed yesterday after being here for almost 2 months. After being in my room for an hour, walking into the kitchen was like walking into a sauna.
So yes, I think a lot about energy use implications, our living standards, our quality of life, and how temperatures on the planet will increase past 800,000 year records in this century. It's even more overwhelming than my schedule. In two weeks, I present on legislation in NY proposing to build a solar power market. Temperatures and pressures are increasing, in more ways than one.
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